The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions

Nber business cycle dating committee members dating site best domain name By "this," Hall is referring to an opposing economic picture painted by the two most important indicators the committee uses to assess whether - and what month - the economy has entered a recession. But real gross domestic product has only posted one quarter of contraction so far this year. Economists' technical definition of a recession is more complicated than the conventional definition, which calls a recession two or more straight quarters of shrinking GDP. The NBER panel instead looks at jobs, manufacturing and sales data, as well as GDP, for a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. [PUNIQGOOGLESNIPMIX-1

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The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.

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The Greater Recession USA 2014-16

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55. The Business Cycle and Fiscal Policy - What Traders Know